The external resources below (updated on a rolling basis) provide information and analysis as Congress and the Trump Administration consider changes to federal Medicaid funding, rules and regulations:
THE LATEST: Analysis of Medicaid and ACA Marketplace Provisions in 2025 Reconciliation Bill (the “One Big Beautiful Bill”)
Context: On May 22, the US House of Representatives in Congress passed a reconciliation bill, which included over $800 billion in cuts to Medicaid and significant changes to ACA marketplaces. On June 4, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released these projections based on the House bill.
On June 16, the Senate Finance Committee released draft text, which included changes to some of the health care provisions in the House bill. On June 27, the US Senate Budget Commitee released its full version of the reconciliation bill. On June 29, the CBO projected that the Senate bill would leave almost 12 million more Americans uninsured. On July 1, the Senate passed a final version of the bill with around a trillon dollars in cuts to Medicaid. The bill returned to the House of Representatives and was passed on July 3. It was signed into law by President Trump on July 4.
Senate bill:
- How Might Federal Medicaid Cuts in the Senate-Passed Reconciliation Bill Affect Rural Areas? (Kaiser Family Foundation, July 2, 2025)
- Health Provisions in the 2025 Federal Budget Reconciliation Bill (Kaiser Family Foundation, UPDATED July 1, 2025)
- Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions Across the States: Senate Reconciliation Bill (Kaiser Family Foundation, July 1, 2025)
- Senate and House Text Section-by-Section One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Families USA, July 1, 2025)
- Summary of Senate-Passed Health Care Provisions in Budget Bill (Families USA, July 1, 2025)
- Congressional Budget Office Confirms Senate Republican Reconciliation Bill’s Medicaid Cuts Are More Draconian than the House-Passed Bill (Georgetown Center for Children and Families, June 29, 2025)
- Estimates of Medicaid funding reductions and coverage losses in California (Governor Newsom press conference, June 27, 2025)
- Medicaid Cuts—Including Work Documentation Requirements—Harm Older Adults (UC Labor Center, June 23, 2025)
- By the Numbers: Senate Republican Leadership’s Health Agenda Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families’ Costs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, June 20, 2025)
- Senate Bill Expands Medicaid Work Requirements to Include Some Parents, Would Take Away Coverage From Millions: State and Congressional District Estimates (Center on Budget Policy and Priorities, June 18, 2025)
House bill:
- By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families’ Health Care Costs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, June 6, 2025)
- House Budget Bill and Tax Credit Expiration Will Make It Harder to Get and Afford Marketplace Health Plans (Commonwealth Fund, June 5, 2025)
- Medicaid and CHIP Cuts in the House-Passed Reconciliation Bill Explained (Georgetown Center for Children and Families, UPDATED June 4, 2025)
- Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions and Enrollment Loss Across the States (Kaiser Family Foundation, UPDATED June 4, 2025)
- Proposed changes to Medicaid, other health programs could lead to over 51,000 preventable deaths, researchers warn (Yale School of Public Health, June 3, 2025)
- House Republican Health Agenda Cuts Coverage, Raises People’s Costs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, May 29, 2025)
- New Summary: Medicaid-Related Provisions in the H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Sellers Dorsey, May 23, 2025
- Don’t Believe Them! The Proposed Reconciliation Bill Directly Harms Older Adults & People with Disabilities on Medicare (National Health Law Program, May 20, 2025)
- MEMO: Analysis of Harms to California from GOP Medicaid Proposal (State of California, May 18, 2025)
- How Will the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Affect the ACA, Medicaid, and the Uninsured Rate? (Kaiser Family Foundation, May 13, 2025)
Analysis of Prior Proposals
Context: The following materials were published prior to a reconcilliation bill starting to move through Congress (see above). The analyses below examined past proposals circulated in Congress or attempted to project the potential impacts of the Congressional budget resolution (passed in April) that called for a total of $880 billion in cuts to federal spending.
Impact on Jobs
- California Health Care Employment by District and County 2023 (UC Labor Center, May 2025)
- California Could Lose Up to 217,000 Jobs if Congress Cuts Medicaid (UC Labor Center, April 2025)
- How Potential Federal Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP Could Trigger the Loss of a Million-Plus Jobs, Reduced Economic Activity, and Less State Revenue (Commonwealth Fund, March 25, 2025)
Impact on Latinos
Impact on State Budgets
- States in the Bull’s-Eye of Medicaid Cuts (The Century Foundation, April 2025)
- Putting $880 Billion in Potential Federal Medicaid Cuts in Context of State Budgets and Coverage (Kaiser Family Foundation, March 24, 2025)
Impact on Seniors
- A Cut to Medicaid is a Cut to Medicare (Justice in Aging, Community Catalyst, Medicare Rights Center, and the Center for Medicare Advocacy, March 4, 2025)
- Federal Cuts to Medicaid Will Harm Older Californians on Medi-Cal (Justice in Aging, February 2025)
- Webinar Replay: Protecting Medicaid for Older Adults: What’s at Risk and what Advocates Can Do (Justice in Aging, February 4, 2025)
Per-Capita Caps
- Medicaid Per Capita Cap Would Harm Millions of People by Forcing Deep Cuts and Shifting Costs to States (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, January 2025)
Restricting Provider Taxes
Work Requirements
- Medicaid Work Requirements Undermine Rural Healthcare (National Health Law Program, April 2025)
- Paperwork Over People: Why Republican “Work Requirements” Fail Families (California Budget & Policy Center, March, 2025)
- Eight Million Medi-Cal Enrollees at Risk of Losing Health Coverage If Congress Imposes Work Requirements (UC Labor Center, March 25, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements Would Gut State and Local Economies. (National Health Law Program, March, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements Could Put 36 Million People at Risk of Losing Health Coverage (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, February 5, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements: Current Waiver and Legislative Activity (Kaiser Family Foundation, November 2024)
