How Many People in Your County Could Lose Coverage Under the Graham-Cassidy Bill?

Katherine Wilson, Wilson Analytics


The Graham-Cassidy bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is expected to go to a vote in the US Congress the week of September 24. Among other provisions, the bill ends funding for the ACA’s premium subsidies and Medi-Cal expansion after 2026. It also imposes a per capita cap on federal funding for the rest of the Medicaid program.

The UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education estimates that 6.7 million Californians could lose coverage in 2027 under Graham-Cassidy — and breaks these losses out by county. Based on these projections, the map below displays the percentage of each California county’s total population — and the percentage of each county’s total Medi-Cal population — that could lose coverage under the bill in 2027.

These estimates are based on one possible state response to the per capita cap provisions of Graham-Cassidy: eliminating Medi-Cal eligibility for children enrolled through the Healthy Families Program and capping enrollment for certain seniors and individuals with disabilities.

Hover over an individual county to see complete details, including the total number expected to lose coverage and that number broken out by Medi-Cal enrollees (child, expansion adult, senior, and disabled) and Covered California subsidized enrollees.