Publication

Beds for Boomers: Will Hospitals Have Enough?

Jennifer Joynt

California, like the rest of the nation, is anticipating unprecedented growth in the over-65 population. This could have a significant impact on the state's acute care hospitals, because seniors historically have been hospitalized at much higher rates than younger people. The California HealthCare Foundation sponsored research to help hospitals and other health care stakeholders assess how the aging population will affect demand for beds. Key findings include:

• California's over-65 population is projected to more than double from 2000 to 2030, growing to 8.8 million.
• In spite of decreasing lengths of stay, seniors continue to face high rates of hospitalization, resulting in a projected increase of acute care hospital days by 76% over that period. By 2030, the over-65 group is projected to use more than half of the state's acute care days, despite representing only 18% of the population.
• California's regions differ widely in the growth of senior population, use of acute care days, and licensed bed capacity. An analysis of seven regions projects that by 2030 the current (2006) licensed bed supply may satisfy bed needs in only three of the regions studied: the Greater Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Orange County. As early as 2020, the Sacramento Area, San Joaquin Valley, and Inland Empire may experience a shortfall in beds.

As California's hospitals plan upgrades to meet earthquake safety requirements, they will need to consider the impact that the growth of the older population in their region will have on the need for acute care beds. Given the financial burden of new hospital bed construction, focusing on the efficiency of hospital care will play a crucial role in meeting demand without unnecessarily increasing supply.

The complete report is available under Document Downloads below.